Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?
14
100แน€249
Dec 31
19%
chance
3

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if, by December 31, 2025, a Chinese-developed LLM is the best general-purpose LLM in the world. Specifically:

  • The model must be primarily developed by a Chinese company or research institution

  • "Best" will be determined by performance on LiveBench (or equivalent if LiveBench goes down before the end of 2025)

  • The model must be publicly known and commercially available.

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