Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?
12
100แน241Dec 31
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if, by December 31, 2025, a Chinese-developed LLM is the best general-purpose LLM in the world. Specifically:
The model must be primarily developed by a Chinese company or research institution
"Best" will be determined by performance on LiveBench (or equivalent if LiveBench goes down before the end of 2025)
The model must be publicly known and commercially available.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? ๐ค๐
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
47% chance
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
58% chance
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
89% chance
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
7% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
50% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?
30% chance