
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
11
1kṀ3722031
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Resolves N/A if Scott Alexander doesn't do this in 2030.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
71% chance
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
19% chance
Who will publicly say they have/had an AI bot as romantic and/or sexual partner before 2030?
Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?
12% chance
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
11% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
17% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
74% chance
Will chatbots/AI be powerful enough to make me unsad by EOY2025?
37% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
23% chance