If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
11
77
Ṁ373Ṁ230
2031
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Resolves N/A if Scott Alexander doesn't do this in 2030.
Related markets:
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
64% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
64% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
47% chance
Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?
37% chance
Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?
60% chance
Will more people interact with AI via voice than via text at the end of 2027?
51% chance
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
19% chance
Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?
71% chance
If the top chatbot in 2025 "thinks" before responding to a difficult prompt, will its thoughts be human-interpretable?
35% chance
Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?
46% chance