Will the total user count for AI chatbots decline by more than a factor of 7 between now and the end of 2026?

AI•Technology•Technical AI Timelines

252

Ṁ14K

Ṁ870

2027

10%

chance

ALL

Resolves to, by default, my best guess, given a lack of . If I find a better data source in the next year and a half, I can change it to resolve based on that. If anyone who bets disagrees with me (which I don't expect), Joshua or someone similar can resolve instead.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicts NO

For gauging chatgpt's eligibility, I made this market:

https://manifold.markets/singer/will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot?r=c2luZ2Vy

predicts NO

Audio only or video only chatbots count as AI chatbots, right?

People using agentic AI assistant and AI chatbots as different tools counts as using AI chatbots, right?

@MaximeRiche no chatbots are texting things

predicts NO

@Seeker weird

Chatbots are about chatting not about using text... Otherwise what about chatbots that currently supports images, audio inputs and outputs? They are still chatbots because they are bots that chat...

predicts NO

@MaximeRiche The market title should update then. ChatBots today are for texting and have always been. you're talking of a future change of definition

predicts NO

@MaximeRiche "Chatting" sure but that only happens with text until now , and we use words as is their conventional usage not future predictions

predicts NO

@Seeker Today's ChatGPT accepts image and audio inputs and can return image and audio too.

ChatGPT is a chatbot.

ChatGPT has also an audio only working mode (calling mode).

predicts NO

@MaximeRiche it takes in images but it doesnt give me images. its a one way thing. not chatting. google search gives me images but isnt a chatbot

predicts NO

@MaximeRiche that audiomode is like saying "TTS" is a chatbot

predicts NO

@Seeker chatgpt outputs images...

predicts NO

@MaximeRiche no?

predicts NO

@Seeker you're seriously not calling dalle a chatbot are you?

predicts NO

@Seeker

predicts NO

@Seeker A chatbot is a bot that you chat with. The medium is irrelevant.

predicts NO

@Seeker https://manifold.markets/singer/definition-does-chatbot-exclusively?r=c2luZ2Vy

predicts NO

hey, sorry to clarify late - IMO chatgpt but via voice counts as a chatbot, and wikipedia and other articles I found seem to agree with that. does anyone disagree strongly?

I don't think dall e is relevant here

bought Ṁ1,894 of YES

Basically 3 years from now and chatbot usage declines significantly - I'm heavy YES on that.

ChatGPT currently does have chat services but I think in the future it might not just have chat services . It's better to keep this subjective imo

predicts NO

@firstuserhere I'm confused why you think ChatGPT would stop being a chatbot. What are you imagining specifically?

predicts YES

@singer I said "just" a chatbot - chatGPT is a service. Its already serving some chat models and has a "Store" for other things. Also an audio mode to talk to the model. Seems like they're going towards using chatgpt as the service and lots of integrations with it

predicts NO

@firstuserhere the store and audio mode are for using the chatbot, like you say, they're not replacing it with something that isn't a chatbot. I'm confused why some here are suggesting that chatgpt will stop being a chatbot.