
Will the total user count for AI chatbots decline by more than a factor of 7 between now and the end of 2026?
50
1kṀ15k2027
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to, by default, my best guess, given a lack of . If I find a better data source in the next year and a half, I can change it to resolve based on that. If anyone who bets disagrees with me (which I don't expect), Joshua or someone similar can resolve instead.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
30% chance
Will chatbots/AI be powerful enough to make me unsad by EOY2025?
37% chance
Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?
35% chance
Will more people interact with AI via voice than via text at the end of 2027?
23% chance
Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?
12% chance
Will the best AI model according to the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard be using Mixture-of-Depths, at the end of 2025?
23% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will bots be the dominant population (>50%) on any leading social media platform by 2030?
63% chance
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
45% chance
Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?
40% chance