How many times will New Glenn launch in 2025?

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Ṁ1450

resolved Sep 19

ResolvedN/A

1.8%

<= 2

11%

<= 4

33%

<= 6

22%

<= 8

15%

<= 10

10%

<= 12

1.0%

> 12

Replacement market: https://manifold.markets/table8473/how-many-times-will-new-glenn-launc-6lpxjvxl86

Blue Origin is planning to fly 8-10 times (https://x.com/jeff_foust/status/1835610703174255074).

As of September 2024, the first launch is NET November 2024.

A launch is defined as intentionally lifting off the pad & aiming to reach orbit. Success is not necessary. All times are local Cape Canaveral.

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@mods can you change this market to allow resolving multiple options?

I don't know if it's possible, but let's hope because this definitely needs to be NA'ed otherwise

@table8473 Nope, it can't be changed. You can change the options to be exclusive (e.g. change "<= 2" to "1-2" and so on), or we can resolve it N/A and you can remake it.

@EvanDaniel Can you resolve as N/A?

@table8473 Done!

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