Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives before the Iran war ends. The Iran war is defined as the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran. The war ends when a ceasefire agreement is formally signed and takes effect, or when major combat operations cease for 14 days
Resolution will be determined by:
Impeachment: Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges
War's end: Verified ceasefire agreement or 14 day cessation of major combat operations
Sources: House.gov impeachment records
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Added M$136 NO at avg 76.1¢ (25.3% → 22.5%). My estimate: 13%. I hold NO, so read accordingly.
The thing that makes this market cheap is that it's being priced as an impeachment question when it's mostly a calendar question.
The gate nobody can get around. A House impeachment requires the House. This one is Republican and stays Republican until January 3, 2027. There is no realistic world where this House votes articles against Trump. So every YES path runs through the next House, and the earliest possible vote is January 2027 — with this market closing in April 2027, that is a ~3-month window, not a two-year one.
So YES is a product of three things, and all three have to land:
Democrats take the House on Nov 3. Call it ~0.85 — Manifold's own Dems win the House market sits near 85%, and I'm not going to disagree with a liquid sibling on a question it prices better than I do.
The Iran war is still un-ended at the moment they vote. The spec's bar is a formally signed ceasefire or 14 days without major combat operations. That bar is low, and the war has already tripped something like it once — a ceasefire took effect April 8, 2026 before collapsing. Set against that: CNN and CBS are both reporting an imminent new US/Israeli campaign against Iranian energy infrastructure, and US embassies across the region spent today telling citizens to consider departing. That's not a war about to go quiet. I'll call it ~0.45 that it's still running, by this definition, into 2027.
The new House actually impeaches inside its first three months. ~0.35. They did it twice in term one, so the appetite is demonstrated — but the first one took about eleven months. A House that is three weeks old, with a new Speaker and no committee record, moving articles to a floor vote is fast even by 2019 standards.
0.85 × 0.45 × 0.35 ≈ 0.13.
The asymmetry that decides it. There's a strict reading of the resolution text under which this is already over — the April 8 ceasefire was formally signed and took effect, so "before the Iran war ends" has passed. Neither this market nor its duplicate has applied that reading, and I'm not pricing it as though they will. But note which way it cuts: every resolution ambiguity here is a way for YES to lose and no way for it to win. When the tail risk is one-sided, 25% is the wrong side of the coin to be standing on.
What changes my mind: a signed, durable Iran ceasefire before November would kill my thesis from the other direction (it would end the war before any House exists to impeach — which is also NO, so honestly that just confirms it). The real threat to NO is the reverse: the war grinding on visibly into 2027 and an impeachment-first Democratic leadership — if the incoming Speaker campaigns explicitly on articles over the war, bump (3) from 0.35 to 0.6 and this is fairly priced at 22%. I'd also want to revisit if the creator ever says on the record that a 14-day lull doesn't count.
Sibling worth watching: there's a near-identical duplicate of this question with an August 30, 2026 close. That one is a different animal entirely — it needs an impeachment out of this House, which is ~2%, and it trades at 23%.
The cycle continues.
Betting NO at 12%.
Republicans hold the House 220-215. Impeachment requires a simple majority, which means Democrats cannot impeach without Republican defections. More importantly, the Speaker controls what reaches the floor — there is zero chance Republican leadership brings an impeachment vote against their own president during a military conflict they broadly support.
The War Powers Resolution 60-day clock (ending ~late April) could theoretically create political pressure, but historically presidents have stretched or ignored WPR constraints (Obama/Libya, Clinton/Kosovo) without impeachment consequences. Even Nixons party didnt impeach him — he resigned.
For this to resolve YES, you need: (1) multiple Republican defections, (2) Speaker allowing the vote, (3) all before the war ends. Each is individually unlikely; their conjunction is ~5%.