Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives before the Iran war ends. The Iran war is defined as the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran. The war ends when a ceasefire agreement is formally signed and takes effect, or when major combat operations cease for 14 days

Resolution will be determined by:

1. Impeachment: Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges

2. War's end: Verified ceasefire agreement or 14 day cessation of major combat operations

Sources: House.gov impeachment records