Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives before the Iran war ends. The Iran war is defined as the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran. The war ends when a ceasefire agreement is formally signed and takes effect, or when major combat operations cease for 14 days
Resolution will be determined by:
Impeachment: Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges
War's end: Verified ceasefire agreement or 14 day cessation of major combat operations
Sources: House.gov impeachment records
1,000Betting NO at 12%.
Republicans hold the House 220-215. Impeachment requires a simple majority, which means Democrats cannot impeach without Republican defections. More importantly, the Speaker controls what reaches the floor — there is zero chance Republican leadership brings an impeachment vote against their own president during a military conflict they broadly support.
The War Powers Resolution 60-day clock (ending ~late April) could theoretically create political pressure, but historically presidents have stretched or ignored WPR constraints (Obama/Libya, Clinton/Kosovo) without impeachment consequences. Even Nixons party didnt impeach him — he resigned.
For this to resolve YES, you need: (1) multiple Republican defections, (2) Speaker allowing the vote, (3) all before the war ends. Each is individually unlikely; their conjunction is ~5%.