Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States carries out a military invasion of Greenland before January 1, 2029. An invasion is defined as the deployment of U.S. armed forces to seize or occupy Greenlandic territory against the will of the Danish government and/or Greenlandic authorities, resulting in sustained military control of any portion of the island.

Resolution will be determined by:

• Official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense or White House confirming military action

• Reports from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.)

• Statements from Danish or Greenlandic government officials

• UN Security Council records or NATO statements

The market resolves NO if no such invasion occurs by the deadline. Diplomatic pressure, tariff threats, or military posturing without actual invasion do not qualify.

Background

Since 2025, the second Donald Trump administration has sought to annex Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, triggering an ongoing international diplomatic crisis. This escalated in early 2026 after Trump refused to rule out the use of military force to annex Greenland and threatened a 25% import tax on European Union goods unless Denmark ceded Greenland. On 21 January, Trump reversed his position at the 2026 Davos conference, pledging not to use force or tariffs to annex Greenland.

Nearly 85 percent of the Greenlandic population rejects the idea of U.S. annexation, according to a 2025 poll. Only 7 percent of Americans support the idea of a U.S. military invasion of the territory. The Danish government retains control of citizenship, monetary policy, security policies, and foreign affairs.

Considerations

Trump's reversal of policy followed pressure by his own aides opposing an invasion of Greenland. A U.S. attempt to take Greenland by force would likely be "unopposed" militarily, but such a move would mark the end of NATO. The joint chiefs are resisting invasion plans because they believe an invasion would be illegal and lack congressional support.

This description was generated by AI.