Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
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Ṁ8799
2027
35%
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resolve YES if an uncrewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2026. Must go beyond earth orbit

/strutheo/will-the-first-crewed-starship-to-m

/strutheo/will-the-first-selfsustaining-base

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Is 31 Dec 2026 a fixed deadline for leaving Earth orbit?

Or is it the launch window that provides the deadline?

While 2024 window is ~Oct 2024 it can be stretched eg Escapade possibly planning launch Spring 2025 with 11 months travel time rather than 6-7 months travel time that is possible if leave by October 2024.

Add 26 months to Oct 2024 gets Dec 2026 but quite possibly lots of that window is in 2027 and if pushed for time to be ready, I think later period in the window may well be selected.

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Does the Trump win affect this? ...maybe.

Literally any Starship model ship with a stated destination of 'Mars' counts, yes? Does it count if/when it

  • leaves the atmosphere?

  • Blows up on the launchpad at ignition?

  • Blows up on the launchpad during fueling?

  • Falls off a crane while being moved to the launchpad?

@DavidFWatson when it launches successfully. can be a successor to the starship with another name if that happens

@strutheo You may want to require that it goes beyond Earth orbit. The primary challenge will be refueling enough to make that burn. If it can do that, Musk will send it to Mars regardless of how ready anything else is.

Don’t know how anyone can still be naive enough to believe this guy.

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upgrade to basic

bought Ṁ20 NO

2 years in Elon Musk time is 5-10 years

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