Will SpaceX successfully conduct a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
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Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES only if there is a successful crewed landing on Mars. This means:
A landing on Mars is required (not just orbit or flyby)
The mission must be crewed (humans aboard)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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opened a Ṁ300 NO at 10% order
Can you clarify what "to Mars" means? Successful landing? Orbit? Flyby? Launch with the intent to go to Mars?
Does at least one human have to survive the mission to Mars?
@FlorisvanDoorn Successful crewed landing. The crews life/death at the time of landing doest't impact the resolution.
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