in the history of the world, it's only happened for anyone when technically necessary for the mission. spacex's architecture doesn't require such. humanity as a whole has and for the foreseeable future will continue to have relatively few human space missions, and being able to lift many more people in a single launch with starship means there's no reason to expect more launches. 2032 or later.

@JohnAe024 I generally agree, although there is a scenario that at least seems plausible. The Dear Moon mission could happen "early" -- that is, before SpaceX is comfortable having a crewed Starship do launch or reentry -- if they instead launch crew in a Dragon and transfer to Starship in orbit. Then Starship does a flyby of the moon and burns into LEO again without reentry. Transfer crew back to Dragon and spashdown.

This mission plan would require multiple Dragon launches, since Dear Moon has more crew than can fit in one.

Doesn't seem very likely though. It's an entirely hypothetical thing, without even rumors to suggest they'd do this, as far as I know.

For a little historical context, it looks like the USSR did this twice before:

Vostok 3 and Vostok 4 (1962):

• On August 11, 1962, the Soviet Union launched Vostok 3 with cosmonaut Andrian Nikolayev aboard.

• Just one day later, on August 12, 1962, Vostok 4 was launched with cosmonaut Pavel Popovich.

• These missions marked the first time two crewed spacecraft were in orbit simultaneously.

Soyuz 4 and Soyuz 5 (1969):

• On January 14, 1969, Soyuz 4 was launched by the Soviet Union, carrying cosmonaut Vladimir Shatalov.

• The next day, on January 15, 1969, Soyuz 5, piloted by cosmonaut Boris Volynov, was launched.

• Soyuz 4 and Soyuz 5 performed a historic docking in space, allowing cosmonauts to transfer between the two spacecraft.

For both cases the launches were less than 24 hours apart, but just barely.