Will the first self-sustaining base on Mars begin being established within 20 years as Elon Musk says?
9
100Ṁ4182045
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
resolve YES if a starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2044 with the parts and/or people necessary to establish a permanent city or base
/strutheo/will-the-first-uncrewed-starship-to
/strutheo/will-the-first-crewed-starship-to-m
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 YES
How does this resolve if SpaceX is rapidly overtaken and made redundant by the first ASI (possibly from X AI but probably from other companies), which starts single-handedly designing, building, and launching missions to build self-sustaining mars bases?
Also does base in this context require biological humans or would any structure housing mobile beings such as AI drones also count?
Related questions
Related questions
Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?
33% chance
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
34% chance
Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025?
2% chance
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
11% chance
Will there be a martian colony by 2050?
39% chance
Will Elon Musk launch a reality show on Mars, featuring Martian life by 2030?
5% chance
Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?
45% chance
Will Elon Musk ever set foot on Mars?
13% chance
Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050
51% chance
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
20% chance