Resolves yes if Trump sends out a stimulus check to the vast majority of American citizens by the end of his current term end date

People are also trading
kalshi defines it as 1million that seems kinda arbitrary https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffchecks/will-americans-receive-tariff-dividends-in-2025/kxtariffchecks-26
“All American citizens” is a thorny phrase here. Last I heard the proposals were to put some kind of income cap on who gets the checks, but aside from that you have questions like
What about people whose citizenship is contested, like citizens swept up in immigration enforcement, or individuals born in the US who are denied birthright citizenship under Trump?
What about administrative issues like citizens without bank accounts or permanent addresses?
On the face of it it’s basically impossible for this to happen because someone will always slip through the cracks, but it’s even more impossible to verify whether it has happened or not.
@bens If there’s a household income cap at $300,000 that means it goes to >95% of households which is “the vast majority” but I don’t think it should lead to this resolving YES. Obviously there’s considerable subjectivity here but clarity would be appreciated.
@bens I'd read it a bit differently, but I agree that the impossibility of the literal reading makes that reading ill-fit. I'd suggest viewing it as the target space rather than as the result space, i.e. a check that was available to and intended to reach as broadly as possible all US citizens would count, whereas one limited to a certain subset would not.
An inappropriate analogy, but an apt one, might be to compare the term "mass shooting": which is best defined not by how many people get shot but instead by the fact that the shooting was indiscriminate and intended to hit as many as possible.
@Gen He just always says Yes! It's always about the spirit and never about the letter. But other bettors don't know that.
would a "tariff dividend" count here
@Marnix now I am kicking myself for not boosting this market when I was asking two days ago. We could've been ahead of the game.
@Marnix even if this counts i'd say there's less than. 25% chance it'd happen. with my uncertainties and lack of confidence id buy a lil more NO at 33%
@shankypanky Can we add some thousands of liquidity to this and then boost it? If 37% is correct, then that's nearly something people should be planning around. If 37% is not correct, then we should give some incentive to get a better answer.
@strutheo it looks like this market is popping off after I asked some questions but it never got the liquidity boost
