Resolves YES if Trump signs legislation to end Social Security, Medicare, Affordable Care or SNAPs.

Resolves NO, if Trump does not sign legislation to end Social Security, Medicare, Affordable Care or SNAPs by the end of his second term.

Resolves N/A if Trump is not elected in 2024.

States with high participation in SNAPs [Food Stamps...] programs include poor rust belt states like West Virginia with >16% SNAPs participation that overwhelmingly support Trump.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap/key-statistics-and-research/#:~:text=12.4%20percent%20of%20U.S.%20residents,as%20low%20as%204.6%20percent.

• Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the definition of "end" or "elimination":

  • The market tracks the termination of these programs, not the reduction of their services through partial defunding or handicapping.

  • Broadly, elimination means closing all offices and associated services.

  • If a program's stated functions are no longer being met, even if some components (like databases) persist elsewhere, it may resolve YES.

Specifically for Social Security:

• Resolves YES if it no longer serves as a retirement savings account (collecting and distributing money), even if social security numbers/databases continue to exist as part of some other program.

Specifically for the Affordable Care Act (ACA):

• Resolves YES if the following three conditions are met, even if associated protections are somehow retained:

  • The elimination of Medicaid eligibility expansion

  • Repealing premium tax credits and cost-sharing subsidies

  • Closing the Insurance Exchange