README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)
Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.
Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of ceasefire:
Any ceasefire qualifies, including those limited to infrastructure and energy.
This means no matter the focus, if a ceasefire is announced it is counted.
Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial Release Inclusion:
For the event "Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video," the release qualifies even if not all parts are released.
1,000People are also trading
@strutheo
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/010310.shtml?
Hurricane Flossie is 3rd pacific hurricane June 30th
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep05/ep052025.public_a.007.shtml
600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
...ERICK NOW A HURRICANE...
second pacific hurricane
@strutheo
Chime IPO June 12
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/chime-set-long-awaited-market-debut-after-864-million-us-ipo-2025-06-12/
second pacific hurricane June 18th per above
28 years later June 20th
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Beyond_the_Spider-Verse
release date was apparently announced in March 2025.
oops sorry missed that one
@strutheo
Manifest ends June 8
First pacific hurricane June 9th 15:00 UTC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep02/ep022025.discus.006.shtml
Apple event is this start time or end time or Keynote speech start or end time? I think all of those are after first Pacific hurricane.
@strutheo Your welcome.
Now reached 72 Falcon 9 and 3 starship makes 75
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025 says
71 but there is one launch that has happened that is currently still in future section
1:54 UTC on 13th
MrBeast 1 June 2025
Manifest starts 6 June 2025
Llama 4 April 5 resolves 23%
Last day of NFL draft April 26 resolves 24%
SpaceX 50 rockets 48th F9 was April 28th 02:09 UTC plus two Starships Jan 16th and Mar 6th resolves 25%
Don't see any others.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/meta-releases-new-ai-model-llama-4-2025-04-05/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/past/?search=starship
Hmm. Third dune movie officially announced
https://9meters.com/entertainment/movies/dune-3-messiah-starts-filming-this-year-with-a-confirmed-release-date-already-set-for-december-18-2026
โDune: Messiah,โ the highly anticipated conclusion to Denis Villeneuveโs epic adaptation of Frank Herbertโs โDuneโ saga, is officially set for release on December 18, 2026. Warner Bros. confirmed the date, giving fans a target to look forward to.
Not sure when this happened. May have been 13 Feb 2025 but I think I looked since then (mid March?) and found suggestions of a December 2026 release date but it didn't seem officially announced just Denis Villeneuve comments about filming to start soon. It seems the 18 Dec 2024 date has been known since June 2024 but it wasn't sure what film it was to be.
Perhaps it still isn't officially announced. Grok thinks
As of March 31, 2025, Warner Bros. has not officially confirmed the production of a third Dune movie ...
Warner Bros. has reserved a December 18, 2026, release date for an unnamed Denis Villeneuve film
So I am not sure if Warner Bros have confirmed 18 Dec 2026 date to be a Dune film as per 9 meters or if that is them just generating articles claiming they know stuff when it isn't really official. It may still not be officially announced. Or it may have happened circa 13 Feb 2025? Or maybe there will be a more official announcement in future? Guess we wait to see what happens.
@ChristopherRandles yeah ive seen the rumors and they confirmed castings but i dont think its been unveiled officially as a project yet, just all the pieces coming together and there is a chance it can fall apart
@strutheo Nintendo Direct happened today: https://www.nintendo.com/us/nintendo-direct/3-27-2025/