README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)
Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.
Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of ceasefire:
Any ceasefire qualifies, including those limited to infrastructure and energy.
This means no matter the focus, if a ceasefire is announced it is counted.
Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial Release Inclusion:
For the event "Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video," the release qualifies even if not all parts are released.
1,000People are also trading
GPT-5 released Aug 7 can resolve at 46
SpaceX 100 launches 97 Falcon 9 3 Starship reach Aug 11th can resolve at 47
@strutheo
@strutheo 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Russia https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2025-07-29-23-24-50-utc-8-8-20
@strutheo
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/010310.shtml?
Hurricane Flossie is 3rd pacific hurricane June 30th
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep05/ep052025.public_a.007.shtml
600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
...ERICK NOW A HURRICANE...
second pacific hurricane
@strutheo
Chime IPO June 12
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/chime-set-long-awaited-market-debut-after-864-million-us-ipo-2025-06-12/
second pacific hurricane June 18th per above
28 years later June 20th
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Beyond_the_Spider-Verse
release date was apparently announced in March 2025.
oops sorry missed that one
@strutheo
Manifest ends June 8
First pacific hurricane June 9th 15:00 UTC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep02/ep022025.discus.006.shtml
Apple event is this start time or end time or Keynote speech start or end time? I think all of those are after first Pacific hurricane.
@strutheo Your welcome.
Now reached 72 Falcon 9 and 3 starship makes 75
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025 says
71 but there is one launch that has happened that is currently still in future section
1:54 UTC on 13th
MrBeast 1 June 2025
Manifest starts 6 June 2025
Llama 4 April 5 resolves 23%
Last day of NFL draft April 26 resolves 24%
SpaceX 50 rockets 48th F9 was April 28th 02:09 UTC plus two Starships Jan 16th and Mar 6th resolves 25%
Don't see any others.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/meta-releases-new-ai-model-llama-4-2025-04-05/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/past/?search=starship