⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2025? (20 DONE)
85
4.1kṀ45k
resolved Nov 19
Resolved
YES
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
Resolved
YES
Chat GPT 5 releases
Resolved
YES
Skate 4 releases
Resolved
YES
Release date of Hollow Knight Silksong known
Resolved
YES
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
Resolved
YES
Mr Beast reaches 400M subscribers on youtube
Resolved
YES
English Wikipedia reaches 7M articles or more
Resolved
YES
USA Government has a shutdown
Resolved
YES
StubHub IPO finalized
Resolved
YES
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage
Resolved
YES
new apple iphone releases
Resolved
YES
Manifest 2025 happens
Resolved
YES
Trump enacts tariffs on china
Resolved
YES
Spider Man Beyond the Spider Verse release date announced
Resolved
YES
Coyote vs Acme release date is announced
Resolved
YES
Verdict in P Diddy Sean Combs trial is reached
Resolved
YES
Trump deportations officially start happening
Resolved
YES
100th spacex launch of the year
Resolved
YES
grok 4 releases

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

  • Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Twitter/X new CEO event: Resolves YES only when a replacement CEO is officially appointed. A resignation or vacancy alone does not count.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ408
2Ṁ329
3Ṁ257
4Ṁ221
5Ṁ106
Sort by:
sold Ṁ0 NO

@strutheo sailing is out

Doesnt "twitter" already have a new CEO?

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Linda Yaccarino is the CEO of X, the social media platform, and she has been in that role since June 2023.

New as in since then

@ChristopherRandles she quit in July

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Ah right. So left but not replaced so no new one yet?

@ChristopherRandles But X has been merged into XAI and it is not clear it will have a new CEO with that title. Surely the question implies Yaccarino's departure, and that is ebough to resolve YES

i was waiting for a replacement yeah

bought Ṁ313 NO

1 left!

@strutheo Time to resolve this one YES?

@RedzoneITG seems like furloughs have begun starting midday eastern time

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/clylje0rmp2t
We were told at the White House that non-essential workers would be furloughed starting at midday.

A stakeout camera is trained on the Eisenhower Executive Office building steps to capture federal workers leaving now it is past the deadline.

A large group walked out at about 12:06pm local time (17:06 BST). One staffer remained at the top of the stairs and waved to members of the group as they left before turning and going back inside.

A second group exited about a minute later.

reposted

2 left!

bought Ṁ50 NO

only 3 left, 1 looks like it will be stubhub ipo!

bought Ṁ500 YES

thank you

@strutheo is this for full release, or public early access?

@RedzoneITG
Sailing as a skill in old school runescape is already out in early access so for consistency presumably should be full release.

wait i didnt even know rs skills had a concept of erly access how does that even work

@strutheo no idea I am just going off
Old School RuneScape's new Sailing skill entered early access with an alpha playtest for members starting March 20, 2025
e.g. https://www.jagex.com/news/head-to-the-high-seas-with-old-school-runescape-s-sailing-skill-alpha-playable-today-for-runescape-members

Note that is probably not "public early access" so maybe there is a difference

oh yeah - in rs case i dont think i count that. but for skate4 i think i will, the end of summer 2025 date has been there for a while

bought Ṁ550 YES

@strutheo can resolve

@strutheo resolve yes

as does 100th SpaceX launch

bought Ṁ201 YES

@strutheo wikipedia 7m MrBeast 400m and manifest can resolve

sold Ṁ0 NO

where are people seeing the 'coyote acme' release date? i see the purchase was finalized and that its aiming for 2026, but no firm date

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy