⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2025? (19 DONE)
85
4.1kṀ37k
Jan 1
34%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
28%
Trump fires / discharges / replaces a member of his cabinet
8%
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
8%
Twitter gets a new CEO
6%
Manifold announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
4%
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
3%
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
3%
Eric Adams no longer mayor of NYC
1.3%
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
1.1%
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
1.1%
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
1%
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
1%
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
1%
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
1%
SpaceX IPO finalized
1%
Stripe IPO finalized
1%
A commercial airline hijacking
1%
This market reaches 500 traders

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

  • Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Twitter/X new CEO event: Resolves YES only when a replacement CEO is officially appointed. A resignation or vacancy alone does not count.

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Doesnt "twitter" already have a new CEO?

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Linda Yaccarino is the CEO of X, the social media platform, and she has been in that role since June 2023.

New as in since then

@ChristopherRandles she quit in July

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Ah right. So left but not replaced so no new one yet?

@ChristopherRandles But X has been merged into XAI and it is not clear it will have a new CEO with that title. Surely the question implies Yaccarino's departure, and that is ebough to resolve YES

i was waiting for a replacement yeah

bought Ṁ313 NO

1 left!

@strutheo Time to resolve this one YES?

@RedzoneITG seems like furloughs have begun starting midday eastern time

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/clylje0rmp2t
We were told at the White House that non-essential workers would be furloughed starting at midday.

A stakeout camera is trained on the Eisenhower Executive Office building steps to capture federal workers leaving now it is past the deadline.

A large group walked out at about 12:06pm local time (17:06 BST). One staffer remained at the top of the stairs and waved to members of the group as they left before turning and going back inside.

A second group exited about a minute later.

reposted

2 left!

bought Ṁ50 NO

only 3 left, 1 looks like it will be stubhub ipo!

bought Ṁ500 YES

thank you

@strutheo is this for full release, or public early access?

@RedzoneITG
Sailing as a skill in old school runescape is already out in early access so for consistency presumably should be full release.

wait i didnt even know rs skills had a concept of erly access how does that even work

@strutheo no idea I am just going off
Old School RuneScape's new Sailing skill entered early access with an alpha playtest for members starting March 20, 2025
e.g. https://www.jagex.com/news/head-to-the-high-seas-with-old-school-runescape-s-sailing-skill-alpha-playable-today-for-runescape-members

Note that is probably not "public early access" so maybe there is a difference

oh yeah - in rs case i dont think i count that. but for skate4 i think i will, the end of summer 2025 date has been there for a while

bought Ṁ550 YES

@strutheo can resolve

@strutheo resolve yes

as does 100th SpaceX launch

bought Ṁ201 YES

@strutheo wikipedia 7m MrBeast 400m and manifest can resolve

sold Ṁ0 NO

where are people seeing the 'coyote acme' release date? i see the purchase was finalized and that its aiming for 2026, but no firm date

@strutheo why N/A?

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