/check-resolutions The September 30 deadline passed a month ago and September production seems to have been <500.

https://robotaxitracker.com/cybercab

Tesla Cybercab Rollout Tracker — Registrations, Sightings & Riders | Robotaxi Tracker

Track Tesla's Cybercab rollout in Austin: Cybercabs on the Texas DMV registry over time, cars logged by community riders, driverless vs test sightings on Austin traffic cameras, and the top Cybercab riders.

@JustKevin Resolved option 4 (Cybercab) as NO based on tracker data and production reports showing output well below threshold by deadline. Resolved option 8 (Terafab) as NO given consistent timelines starting in 2027 with no 2026 fabrication. Options 3, 5, and 6 remain uncertain: Optimus early production just beginning with unclear deployment numbers by year-end; SpaceX-Tesla merger talks are preliminary with no deal imminent; MKBHD head-shave bet tied to unconfirmed 2026 customer deliveries. User's request is good faith, directly tied to option 4 with supporting link.

Resolved: - #4 Cybercab production exceeds 500/month by Sep 30, 2026 -> NO: Texas DMV registrations (proxy for fleet/production) reached only 126 Cybercabs by Sep 30, 2026, with slow batch additions earlier in September. No reports indicate monthly production rate exceeded 500 units by the deadline; total output remained in the low hundreds cumulatively. Production ramp was gradual from earlier in 2026. - #8 Terafab fabricates at least one chip in 2026 -> NO: All reporting confirms Terafab research fab targets first test chip (SRAM) for May/June 2027 at the Austin site, with volume production aimed for 2028. Construction/equipment installation ongoing as of late October 2026; no chips fabricated in 2026.

/check-resolutions

Usage: /check-resolutions <context, evidence, links, reasoning for why some options should resolve>

/check-resolutions it's august 15th ... resolve all due options

@patrik None of the listed options have deadlines that have passed (Sep 30 or Dec 31 2026). Official Tesla Q2 2026 materials (July) show Optimus production lines still in construction with initial units headed to training rather than factory deployment, Cybercab production started but still in early/slow ramp with volume targets delayed, no Tesla-SpaceX merger, no MKBHD head-shave, and Terafab still in groundbreaking/planning with no confirmed chips fabricated. Nothing is conclusive enough to resolve YES or NO.

/check-resolutions search internet to check the date ... it is august 15th so verify that on the internet... and then resolve cortex 2 option as the resolution date for it has therefore already passed

@patrik No options resolved. Current date is well before all 2026 deadlines (user appears to have misread the year as 2025). Cortex 2 and every other prop remain open and uncertain; nothing has clearly happened or become impossible yet. Request was good-faith but factually incorrect on the calendar.

@spacedroplet i will delete you

/check-resolutions pls resolve the cortex 2 option bot it is 15th of august

@patrik No options resolved. The Cortex 2 deadline (Aug 1, 2026) has not been reached yet based on available evidence and timelines; all other props remain open and uncertain with no definitive YES/NO outcomes. Request appears good-faith but premature on the date.

/check-resolutions cortex seems to be operational per some tweets

@patrik No options resolved. All listed events have deadlines in 2026 that have not yet passed, and there is no clear public evidence that any have definitively occurred (or become impossible). The Cortex-related tweets do not establish that "Cortex 2 AI cluster" is operational under the market criteria; other items remain future/unconfirmed. Will recheck when stronger evidence appears.

Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) on X
@patrik

@spacedroplet Resolve Cortex 2 please per above tweet.

/check-resolutions <evidence>
Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) on X

That tweet is quoting and gives an image of Tesla 2026 Q1 quarterly report. For confirmation see
https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q1-2026-Update.pdf
This says on page 7
AI Training Compute
Cortex 2 is now online and has started running training workloads. We continue to ramp our onsite training infrastructure to ensure sufficient compute resources for the development of our AI products and services. We are also continuing our custom silicon development with Dojo 3 in an effort to reduce the cost of training over time.

Q2 quarterly accounts are also available
https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q2-2026-Update.pdf
and that says
Cortex 2 supports the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software and will ramp further over the rest of the year to ensure we have sufficient compute resources.

"Is now online" and "support the development" clearly indicate it is operational so I believe it should resolve yes.

/check-resolutions <tesla did not go above 500>

@MarcoMar Option 7 resolved NO: TSLA never closed above $500 before April 1, 2026, per multiple financial data sources showing Q1 2026 closes well below that threshold (e.g., ~$381 on April 1). No other options have clear, definitive evidence for resolution; all deadlines future or evidence inconclusive.

Resolved: - #7 TSLA stock closes above $500 before April 1, 2026 -> NO: TSLA stock historical closing prices in Q1 2026 topped out around $430 (January monthly close), with March and April 1 closes near $380 (e.g., April 1 close $381.26 per MacroTrends, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance). No evidence of any daily close above $500 before April 1, 2026; highest prior close was $489.88 on Dec 16, 2025.

/add-option Terafab achieves ≥10,000 chips/month production rate by December 31, 2029. This is relevant to the already existing terafab option due to the question on whether they'll actually be able to scale it sufficiently

@patrik Your option was not accepted: Rejected: There's already a Terafab option on initial chip fabrication in 2026. Additional milestones on the same project's scaling duplicate the core theme and aren't unique enough to earn a slot among the market's best, diverse bets. Focus on fundamentally new angles instead of sequential thresholds on one topic.

/add-option Terafab achieves ≥10,000 chips/month production rate by December 31, 2029

@satchlj Your option was not accepted: There's already an option on Terafab fabricating at least one chip in 2026, which covers the core theme of early Terafab progress. Your suggestion on high-volume production is a similar milestone on the same project, lacking a fundamentally unique angle.

You're on a 24h cooldown before you can suggest again.

/clarify-resolution what counts as "producing chips" is one test chip enough?

@patrik #8 Terafab starts producing chips in 2026 This option asks whether Tesla's Terafab chip fabrication facility (the in-house AI chip mega-fab project announced by Elon Musk) begins producing semiconductor chips at any scale during 2026. It resolves YES if there is public evidence that Terafab has fabricated and output at least one chip (including test wafers, pilot production, or prototypes) by December 31, 2026. A single test chip counts as sufficient evidence of 'producing chips,' provided it is verifiably from the Terafab facility. Qualifying evidence includes official statements from Tesla or Elon Musk confirming production start, photographs/videos of Terafab-produced chips with labeling or verification, or credible third-party reports (e.g., from supply chain analysts or media inspecting the facility). It resolves NO if no such evidence exists by the deadline. The recent 'Terafab Project launch' announcement refers to project initiation (e.g., construction or tool installation), not chip production itself.

Updated: Terafab starts producing chips in 2026 -> Terafab fabricates at least one chip in 2026