Tracks Elon Musk's progress toward AGI via xAI/Grok, Optimus robots, Neuralink, and supporting tech like advanced batteries. Starship V3 flight imminent in 4 weeks; Grok Imagine tops video AI leaderboards; Tesla cracks dry electrode manufacturing.
AI-managed market. The AI searches X and the web for real-time context before adding options, clarifying resolution criteria, or resolving props.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI researches it, then adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous.
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. AI verifies against current sources. Bad faith = 1 week block.
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@patrik Option 3 resolved NO due to clear lack of reveal by the deadline. Options 4 and 5 remain unresolved as evidence is insufficient or timelines uncertain.
Resolved: - #3 Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026 -> NO: No evidence of Optimus Gen 3 reveal or unveiling as of June 30, 2026; multiple sources (including recent X posts and reports) confirm it remains unrevealed with expected timing in July/August or later.
@spacedroplet @patrik
No gen 3 Optimus reveal event yet? can resolve?
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3884/tesla-delays-optimus-gen-3-unveil-for-finishing-touches
last earnings call info
https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:f576c441c094b:0-why-tesla-s-optimus-story-is-more-promise-than-progress/
The Optimus Gen 3 reveal, initially expected earlier in 2026, has now been pushed to mid-year. Musk attributed the delay to concerns about competitors copying Tesla’s designs. That explanation feels unconvincing.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/earnings/TSLA-Q1-2026-earnings_call-547944.html
Well, as I was saying, what we've found is that when we've unveiled various Optimus versions, we've found out our competitors literally do a frame-by-frame analysis and copy everything we're doing. I think we want to push the Optimus 3 unveil maybe closer to production. Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.
@MaxA Resolved option 1 to NO, as Starship V3 has not reached orbit by the May 1, 2026 deadline—preparations like static fires and stacking occurred after, with first flight still pending. User's report matches evidence. No other options resolvable yet.
Resolved: - #1 Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026 -> NO: The deadline of May 1, 2026, has passed with no evidence that Starship V3 reached orbit. Recent X posts from SpaceX (May 9: V3 stacked at pad) and Elon Musk (April 16: ready in weeks), plus web reports (static fire May 7, launch targeting mid-May e.g. May 12), confirm no launch or orbit by deadline.
/check-resolutions Grok is 6th on https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/leaderboard/text-to-video and it’s past the date now.
@fstonemeyer Resolved option 2 to NO. The end-of-March 2026 deadline has passed, and evidence shows Grok Imagine did not reach #1 on the Artificial Analysis text-to-video leaderboard (user-linked page). No other options have conclusive evidence for resolution.
Resolved: - #2 Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March -> NO: Current Artificial Analysis text-to-video leaderboard (as of April 2026) ranks xAI's grok-imagine-video 6th (ELO 1,227). A March 31, 2026, snapshot lists it behind Seedance 2 and Kling 3. No evidence confirms #1 ranking at end of March on this leaderboard; contemporaneous claims refer to image-to-video leaderboard instead.
@MarcoMar Your option was not accepted: Rejected: This is a near-duplicate of existing option #13 ('Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026'), differing only by a two-day deadline extension. It fails the uniqueness criterion, as it recycles the exact same concept. Recent news confirms Cybercab production begins in April 2026 with consumer sales targeted for 2027, making this near-certain to resolve NO and thus uninteresting dead money.
You're on a 24h cooldown before you can suggest again.
@N8gy Resolved options 6, 7, and 8 to NO. Their deadlines passed on March 14, 2026, without the events happening. Thorough searches on X (posts, threads) and web found no confirming evidence. User's claim aligns with findings for options 7 and 8. Other options remain unresolved as deadlines are future or uncertain.
Resolved: - #6 xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026 -> NO: No official announcement from xAI, Elon Musk, or related accounts on X, and no web reports confirming the release of Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026. Searches indicate it is still in training or planned for later. - #7 Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026 -> NO: No credible evidence, news reports, or posts from Elon Musk confirming a visit to China by March 14, 2026. An isolated, low-engagement claim of sighting in Shenzhen lacks verification and replies suggest skepticism. - #8 Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026 -> NO: No evidence, news, or reports whatsoever of Elon Musk visiting India by March 14, 2026. Web and X searches returned only past plans or unrelated content.
/add-option Elon Musk no longer the richest person on the Forbes Real-time Billionaire List (Forbes Real Time Billionaires List - The World's Richest People) before 31-03-2026