Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket
Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket
26
5.5kṀ11k2026
62%
Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines)
57%
Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026
55%
I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028
51%
I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025
28%
US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026
13%
Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026
4%
Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025
2%
I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025
1.4%
Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025
Any tests will be done:
With my model Y 2023
With fsd paid for
At my current slanted not easy driveway or equivalent
All of this is regarding tesla FSD
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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