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MANIFOLD
Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket
42
Ṁ5.8kṀ19k
2027
58%
Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)
46%
Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)
28%
I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028
Resolved
YES
Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026
Resolved
YES
Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

Any tests will be done:

  • With my model Y 2023

  • With fsd paid for

  • At my current slanted not easy driveway or equivalent

All of this is regarding tesla FSD

Update: I added clarification statements to some fo the requirements - that they be done without me. Ie its clear that I never want to enter a dirty parking garage again - so can the car do that? Similarly can it unpark for me automatically and get ready to go

  • Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the question "Will I be able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, under any public road driving conditions by mid 2026?": This will resolve YES if there exists any weather or traffic conditions on a public road which allow sleeping while the car drives. It does not require this to work in all conditions or locations.

  • Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the question "Will I be able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, under any public road driving conditions by mid 2026?": This will resolve YES if the creator can legally and with Tesla's approval sleep while driving on some public road (even for just 5 minutes). It does not require this to work in all conditions or locations.

  • Update 2025-12-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's 2023 Model Y has HW4 (Hardware 4) rather than HW3.

  • Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Mid 2026" means by June 30, 2026, midnight.

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@Ernie sleep while car drives by mid 2026 can resolve thanks.

May 14, 2026 update: grok still in car. No progress on non xAI Models in the car, although I'd pay a lot for this. For the two "me not in car" ones I'll have to run tests - I haven't tried the summon features that are in the car now.

@Ernie please resolve the "mid 2026" answers (and consider reopening the market for the future answers)

@PlasmaPower By mid 2026 I meant end of June 30, midnight, 2026

Will I be able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, under any public road driving conditions by mid 2026?

Any road conditions - does mean anywhere so if it is possible in Florida but not California does this resolve yes or no?

@ChristopherRandles

ah I'm sorry, you're right. I mean, does there exist any weather or traffic conditions on a public road which will allow me to do this? Not ALL but whether there are any allowed cases.

@Ernie So I think I take it that "on a public road by mid 2026" is to be interpreted as "possible on just one single public road anywhere in just one set of weather conditions by mid 2026"?

@ChristopherRandles yep. if i can legally, okay-with-tesla, sleep while driving on some public road, even for just 5 minutes, then YES

I still have grok and use it all the time. it's just so convenient to yell at it while I drive and sometimes get useful info.

Also, this stat tracker launched and is dramatically changing my behavior (to maxing FSD)

bought Ṁ50 YES

Is this a HW4 or HW3 model. some 2023 Model Y had HW4. With HW4 and FSD 14.1.4 you can do the backing out of the garage and park on the side of the street

@brianwang huh, I'll try that. I just got an upgraded fsd and the quality jump has been noticeable

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

This should be resolvable, no?

Grok in car = Tesla already has 40million deployed portable semi-wearable AI devices. Take that, Sam and Jony Ive.

Wow, I got grok in my model Y today and it's very good. This is very surprising. I only played around with the language teacher part but it was still very awesome.

If this model was Claude or chatGPT with related memory functions, this would be even better

I got FSD13 a few days ago and it's pretty awesome & seems way more aware of what's going on, and doesn't tailgate as much when people merge in closely in front of me. Not 100% following my preference to keep more distance, but compared to FSD12, more than 50% of the remaining driving problems areas are gone now. e.g. FSD12 was about 90% perfect, and FSD13 is above 95%

@Ernie gonna need a lot more than one nine of correctness to get across the country without help 😆

@DavidFWatson bet ya

By my comment I meant that even me, a big booster, was surprised that over 50% of the remaining small base area got fixed in this update

I can regularly go very far with no critical disengagements, and let it run through many more environments now

@Ernie Based on context, this is specifically a market about Tesla's FSD?

@DavidFWatson Yes will update desc