Elon's Tesla promises, Q1 26 Prop Bets

Question

Will Tesla/Elmo fulfill their projections/promises?

I reserve the right to modify resolution criteria based on feedback from comments up to Apr 27th.

All production questions only include items produced to be sold on the market, not prototypes or similar.

For the option "Robotaxis in at least 12 states in 2026", robotaxis count only if running:

without a human driver

continuously without any definite end date or larger breaks in operation (no one-off stunts)

At least 5 cars per state

I won't trade on this market.

Based on https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q1-earnings-updates-tsla-stock-robotaxis-elon-musk-2026-4#tesla-is-spending-heavily-to-fund-its-ai-ambitions

Specifically:

"We expect volume production of both Cybercab and the Tesla Semi this year,"

Musk signals Optimus optimism. He says he "remains convinced" that Optimus, the humanoid AI bot, is Tesla's most important product, and predicts that the company will begin production later this year.

[Roadster] "May be able to debut that in a month or so," Musk now says. "I think it will be one of the most exciting product unveils ever."

the CEO says that Tesla is aiming to roll out robotaxis in a "dozen or so states,"

Update 2026-04-24 (PST): Definition of "produced": A unit counts as produced if it is ready to be sold to customers, meaning both hardware and software readiness are required, but regulatory approval is not required.

If Tesla deploys units for use sufficiently similar to their intended customer use (e.g. Cybercabs as robotaxis), that counts as YES

If there is substantial doubt that units have such capacity (e.g. no convincing demonstration from Tesla), the market will tend to resolve NO

The general spirit for Cybercabs and Semis is to check if volume production has started; if it is unclear whether they have 100 usable units I will tend to resolve NO.

Similarly for Optimus - if it is unclear whether they have 10 usable units, it is unlikely that "production" has begun in earnest and I will tend to resolve NO.

Update 2026-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding Cybercab readiness criteria:

Public use would clearly satisfy the 'ready to be sold' demonstration requirement

Current deployment in a stress/testing context (with significant oversight) is generally considered pre-readiness testing and may not be sufficient on its own

However, if there is substantial evidence that a deployment is not merely testing, it could satisfy the readiness criteria even without public rides

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, At least 100 Semis produced in 2026, followed by At least 10 Optimus V3 or later produced in 2026 and Robotaxis in at least 12 states in 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Nov 1, 2026).