Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the date on which the first vessel is confirmed to be "hit" in or around the Strait of Hormuz following the US's naval blockade.
For the purpose of this market, "hit" is defined as a vessel sustaining physical damage due to a hostile act, including, but not limited to, missile strikes, drone attacks, naval mine explosions, or direct kinetic impact from hostile craft.
"In or around the Strait of Hormuz" refers to the maritime area encompassing the Strait itself and the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Hits on ports won't count, even if vessels would be damaged in such attacks.
Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from credible maritime security agencies (e.g., United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations - UKMTO), major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC), or official government statements.
If multiple reports emerge with conflicting dates, the date of the earliest verified incident will be used.
Update 2026-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding vessels crashing due to harassment by hostile craft: if a vessel sustains damage directly as a result of the hostile encounter (e.g., crashes into rocks while being actively harassed by speedboats), this counts as a hit. However, if the hostile craft disengage and the vessel subsequently crashes due to its own continued movement, this does not count as a hit.
1,000@Qoiuoiuoiu if it happens directly in that incident then I'll consider that as a hit. I mean, if a ship was harassed and then the speedboats gave up but the ship continued to move quickly and that's what made it crash, then it's a no.