Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 following the outbreak of the US-Iran war. On April 17, Iran briefly declared it open, but the IRGC reversed course and shut it again within 24 hours. As of May 28, daily passages remain a small fraction of pre-war levels, with IRGC coordination still required for all vessels.

Trump announced on May 23 that a deal was “largely negotiated,” but contradicted himself days later by telling negotiators “not to rush.” Formal talks are scheduled to resume in Islamabad on June 5. Iran has stated it believes it can restore normal traffic within one month of a peace agreement.

Current oil market traders assign only a 38% probability to traffic normalizing by July 1, making this a genuinely uncertain, high-stakes question.

This market resolves YES if the Strait of Hormuz is officially reopened and commercial vessel traffic returns to at least 80% of pre-war averages on or before June 10, 2026, as confirmed by CNBC, Reuters, or the IAEA/UN. Traffic data and tanker tracking is publicly available via platforms like Vortexa or TankerTrackers.com.

Resolves NO if this threshold is not met by June 10, 2026.