On May 31st 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
4
Ṁ1kṀ186Jun 1
61%
x ≥ 2
53%
x ≥ 4
50%
x ≥ 6
50%
x ≥ 8
50%
x ≥ 10
47%
x ≥ 12
23%
x ≥ 14
Question
On May 31st 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Resolution Criteria
Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on May 31st 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.
If the data are not available by end of day June 30th, I will resolve each market to NA.
Related Markets
Shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]
3% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]
44% chance
Will the US lift its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
13% chance
How many weeks will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?
31.0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
80% chance
Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
73% chance
Will we see a destroyed tanker in the Straight of Hormuz by mid 2026?
36% chance
Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026
86% chance
Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026?