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Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
3
Ṁ1kṀ95
Dec 31
50%
chance

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.

  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will only consider days after market creation (not any day in 2026 including before creation).

chokepoint6
Note to users: Due to the ongoing conflict in the region, there are reports of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels going dark. Please use the data with care and refer to our FAQ page for limitations of AIS data.
Market context
Middle East
Iran
Israel-Iran Conflict
Iranian Politics
Wars
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