All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?
12
100Ṁ2243
2030
10%
chance

A victory for dark enlightenment - fragmentation of the four biggest corrupt mega-entities.

As the EU is already fragmented, it must be at or below the present (Feb 2025) level of unification.

The other 3 must be at most at the same level - so there must be multiple entities managing their own taxation and security. If any is in the state of civil war, the actual situation/governance ability on the ground will be considered.

  • Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fragmentation Count: Only 2 fragments is enough.

    • Minimum Size Threshold: The fragmentation must be at least a 1/5 - 4/5 split, meaning both groups should constitute a significant proportion of the original entity.

    • Sovereignty Requirements: Both fragments must have control over security and taxation.

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Curious what you think @skibidist but I figured the future of warfare (drones + AI) would lead to more centralization not less as the winners would be those with greater industrial capacity, compute etc.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Is there a minimum number of fragments, or is 2 enough? Is there a minimum population to count as a significant enough fragment? Do they need complete sovereignty or is any level of power devolution enough?

@TheAllMemeingEye 2 is enough (originally had a different idea, but that would just create ambiguity), 2 is a happy enough outcome, but I guess we need a minimum size threshold, so let's say it must be at least 1/5 - 4/5 split with both fragments having sovereign control over security and taxation.

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