Market Question

Will the United States and European Union form a single transatlantic sovereign superstate—complete with unified executive, legislature, judiciary, and currency—by January 1, 2050?

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, on or before January 1, 2050 (UTC), all of the following conditions are met:

1. Territorial & Population Thresholds

• 2024 Borders
  Only the populations and territories within the political borders of:

  • The European Union as of January 1, 2024 (27 member states), and

  • The United States as of January 1, 2024 (50 states + DC)
    are counted.

• Population

  • EU: At least 50 % of the people residing within those 2024 EU borders are citizens or subjects of the Superstate by 2050.

  • US: At least 50 % of the people residing within those 2024 US borders are citizens or subjects of the Superstate by 2050.

• Territories

  • At least 26 of the 50 US states (DC counts as one) and at least 14 of the 27 EU member states must be fully incorporated into the Superstate.

2. Unified Sovereign Entity

A single sovereign state (“the Superstate”) must exist that governs the required populations and territories, with centralized authority in:

• Executive: One head of state or government whose authority spans all member territories.

• Legislature: A single parliament or congress whose laws apply uniformly across the entire Superstate.

• Judiciary: A unified supreme or constitutional court system with binding jurisdiction over every part of the Superstate.

3. Strong Federal Authority

• No requirement for democratic governance—any system (e.g., monarchy, single-party, technocracy) qualifies.

• Central institutions must possess greater powers than the European Commission as of 2024, including at minimum:

  • Federal Taxation: Authority to levy and collect taxes across all member territories.

  • Military Command: Authority to raise, maintain, and deploy armed forces under Superstate control.

  • Control of Immigration: Centralized authority over entry, residence, and citizenship policy.

  • Control of Foreign Policy: Sole authority to negotiate treaties and represent the Superstate internationally.

4. Single Official Currency

A single legal tender must be used for most domestic transactions throughout the Superstate’s territory.

5. Full Sovereignty & Recognition

• The Superstate must exercise independent legislative, executive, and judicial powers internally.

• It must be recognized as a sovereign state by major international organizations (e.g., admitted as a UN member or formally acknowledged in UN records).

Notes & Clarifications

• Partial Integrations (e.g., customs unions, defense pacts, trade agreements, dual citizenship schemes) do not satisfy the criteria.

• Additional Countries (e.g., Canada, UK, China) are irrelevant—only the 2024–defined US and EU populations and territories matter.

• The market resolves NO if any of the above conditions are unmet by January 1, 2050 EOD.