Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)
Basic
10
922
3000
42%
chance

Details:

A qualifying 'trip' in this market is any transit from point(A) to point(B) where the shortest distance between these points is greater than 200km and the transit time is less than 1234.8km/h from takeoff to landing after 1/1/2023.

EG, a trip where takeoff at JFK was at 00:00 GMT and a landing at LHA no later than 02:55.

Will resolve YES if -

(a) SpaceX becomes defunct / goes bankrupt prior to Boom Supersonic going bankrupt or otherwise becoming defunct as an enterprise.

(b) Boom Supersonic platform vehicles are used in 200 commercially available trips before SpaceX platform vehicles are used in 200 commercially available trips.

(b)(2) A single trip is defined as a commercial (at least 1 paying customer) transits from a point of origin to a destination point not less than 200km apart.

Will Resolve as NO if

(a) Boom Supersonic becomes defulct / goes bankrupt prior to SpaceX going bankrupt or otherwise becoming defunct as an enterprise.

(b) SpaceX platform vehicles are used in 200 commercially available trips before Boom Supersonic platform vehicles are used in 200 commercially available trips.

(b)(2) A single trip is defined as a commercial (at least 1 paying customer) transits from a point of origin to a destination point not less than 200km apart.

(c) for the purposes of this market 'orbital' will be determined to be any trip which latitudinally circumnavigates the globe at least once. A trip from NY to London that for whatever reasons misses its target and is forced to 'orbit' once before landing at its destination would be disqualified.

For this purpose, SpaceX has not yet qualified due to all commercial trips launched to date having been orbital in nature.

Will Resolve as NA if:

(a) A third party (neither of these entities) accomplishes the task before either listed company does.

(b) both companies go bankrupt, become defunct, or are ultimately acquired by THE SAME ENTITY prior to resolution.

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