Will a supersonic plane fly commercial passengers by 2030?
26
114
462
2030
20%
chance

See for example this video from Boom, planning passengers by 2029.

Some clarifications of the criteria:

  1. There is no lower limit on how long the plane has to fly at the supersonic speed. The moment a plane carries commercial passengers at a speed which is supersonic at the altitude of flight, this qualifies for YES resolution.

  2. "Commercial Passenger" means someone who unexpectedly had to choose a different option than the supersonic flight would be more likely to re-book on a major airline like American or Delta than on a business jet. This will be somewhat subjective but important factors will include - Is the experience on the supersonic plane more similar to a regular airline than a business jet? To which is the ticket price more similar (log scale)? Do the passengers mostly fly business?

  3. At least two passengers are all that is required for this to resolve YES.

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With the current phrasing of the question would the original Concorde have counted as a Yes? It only had business class seats, each costing $20k when adjusting for inflation.

I would put an exact dollar limit on the ticket price (with inflation adjustments) to make this easier to resolve.

bought Ṁ10 YES
  1. For how long does the Supersonic phase of the flight has to last for this to resolve as Yes?

  2. Will this resolve as Yes if the plane does carry some paying passengers but one cannot easily buy the ticket via Google Flights?

  3. How many commercial passengers have to be carried by 2030 for this to resolve as Yes?

@nsokolsky Thanks for the questions, see the updated criteria.

A pretty noisy signal, but the Glassdoor reviews for Boom Supersonic are brutal https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Boom-Supersonic-Reviews-E2183118.htm

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