https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/when-will-starship-first-flying-pay?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

From 2021

From 2022

Who is Boom?

@SirCryptomind Yeah they have bought a dream basically. If Boom flies UA and AA are definitely top contenders. But I doubt Boom will fly. There's a market for it where you can win my mana if I'm wrong: https://manifold.markets/NiklasWiklander/will-boom-overture-fly-supersonic-b

SpaceX is not an airline, and Starship point2point is not the intended focus of this question

Sorry~

@JoshuaWilkes I will suggest that the next commercial super-sonic, sub-orbital, point-to-point commercial trip with more than 500 miles between point of origin and destination, with regular and recurring service, will be provided by SpaceX aboard a Starship platform vehicle.

@robotnik At which time SpaceX WILL BE an airline.

@JoshuaWilkes As an aside, I don't believe any vehicle manufacturer or airline (other than SpaceX, and to be clear, SpaceX HAS formally listed point2point as a possible application of Starship tech... they've even generated cgi demos of the concept) has any interest in developing super-sonic vehicles / routes.

@robotnik and yet,if it is flown by Starship, it will be outside the bounds of this market, which is intended to probe what we might call Concorde gen2

@robotnik you may want to read about Boom

@robotnik I will (shortly) create a different market that includes Starship point2point

@JoshuaWilkes https://manifold.markets/robotnik/will-a-boom-supersonic-beat-spacex

You could always edit SpaceX to an actual airline. I think of it like Richard Branson had Virgin Galactic and Virgin Airways, one is space & one is air flight, different.

But I guess you kind of never know what Elon will try with SpaceX or do a side project and bring it into SpaceX like he did with the Solar Company into Tesla.

@SirCryptomind so the judgement I've made in this is that if SpaceX start operating as an airline I'll just edit the answer to XAir or whatever dumb name it is, but it will only count if they are operating a supersonic jet rather than a Starship point2point vehicle

@JoshuaWilkes I guess my question is, is it important to the purpose of this market that the qualifying vehicle be an airframe vs a rocket? It seems to me, based on your comments and the text to the prompt, that it's for some reason meaningful that the vehicle achieve lift by means of an airfoil. My only question is, WHY is that meaningful? If the underlying technology has been superseded the fact that anyone might break previous records with an earlier technology is entirely a novelty.

If SpaceX (or anyone else) can offer passengers one way travel from any pointA on earth to any piontB on Earth in less than an hour... who cares if someone has re-commercialized supersonic air travel at that point? It would be like pointing out that you've perfected the ocean liner as a counterpoint to the advent of the air liner.

@robotnik If you think it is unfair of me to update the description in a way that clarifies my intention but excluded your submitted answer I'm more than happy to refund the Mana it cost you.

I've already made it clear what this market is about. It doesn't seem like a very good use of either of our Sundays for you to try to persuade me otherwise. I won't mind at all if you want to duplicate this market with your preferred conditions

@JoshuaWilkes I don't think they have bet.

@SirCryptomind they submitted the answer

@JoshuaWilkes I'm not really worried about the mana. I'm more curious about a cogent explanation as to the rationale behind the market and your interest in it. I understand at some level that this is a market about the fulfillment of the Boom contracts you linked, which is fine. And, if this is meant to be a market on the success of those contracts then ok, sure.

My real question is - is there some rabbit hole that you went down that you'd like to share that made you think this particular development is particularly interesting?

@JoshuaWilkes Ah ok! I did not realize that they submitted the answer, apologies.

@robotnik this isn't about the Boom contracts per se except that those are an obvious starting point for the general question (and the range of Boom has some bearing on who might operate it)

This is about something that has fascinated many people for a very long time, which is the idea of a Concorde moment, ie taking a step back from a technological advance.

Supersonic passenger flight is obviously the original Concorde moment, and I'm curious about whether it will be reversed.

Ballistic exo-atmospheric flight is just something quite different. It may or may not render supersonic atmospheric flight irrelevant for transportation, and that's obviously a question that has an impact on this market, but it's not what inspired me to create this market and my interest in this is quite separate.