Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the Landtag (state parliament) of Saxony-Anhalt following the state election scheduled for September 6, 2026. An absolute majority is defined as securing more than 50% of the seats in the Landtag.

Resolution will be based on the official final election results published by the State Returning Officer of Saxony-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter). If the AfD fails to achieve an absolute majority of seats, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

The state election for the 9th Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt is scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. The political landscape in the state has been characterized by significant support for the AfD, which has polled consistently high in the lead-up to the election. The outcome of the election regarding a parliamentary majority will depend on the final seat distribution, which is influenced by the party's second vote (Zweitstimme) share and the number of other parties that successfully cross the 5% electoral threshold required to enter parliament. Because the total number of seats in the Landtag can vary due to overhang and compensatory mandates, an absolute majority requires the AfD to secure more than half of the total seats allocated after the election.

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