Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Reza Pahlavi physically enters Iran at any point between now and 11:59PM Iran Standard Time December 31, 2026. Resolution requires credible reporting from major news outlets confirming his entry into Iranian territory. The market resolves NO if he does not enter Iran by the end of 2026.

Background

Reza Pahlavi, 65, has lived in exile in the United States for almost five decades, having left Iran in 1978 before the Islamic Revolution. Beginning on 28 December 2025, mass demonstrations erupted across Iran amid a deepening economic crisis and a general dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic government, evolving into the largest uprising since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, and potentially the largest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Pahlavi stated he is "more than ever ready to step in Iran as soon as the situation warrants itself, and I'll be there among my compatriots to lead the ultimate battle." In a post on social media, Mr Pahlavi said: "I too am preparing to return to the homeland so that at the time of our national revolution's victory, I can be beside you, the great nation of Iran. I believe that day is very near."

Considerations

While protesters have shouted in support of the shah in some protests, it is not clear whether that is support for Pahlavi himself or a desire to return to a time before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Additionally, Pahlavi has been outside Iran for 48 years—longer than the Islamic Republic has existed. He has lived in the United States since he was 17. He is a stranger in his own country. The regime's security apparatus remains intact, and returning to Iran will be fraught. While it is still too early for him to do so—the Iranian people only control a few peripheral towns—making physical entry a significant logistical and security challenge.