Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to hold power by December 31, 2030, AND Reza Pahlavi is the leader of Iran exactly one year after the commonly understood date of the regime's fall. The resolution of the linked market (https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO) determines whether the precondition is met.

Resolves NO if the Islamic Republic falls by 2030 but: (1) anyone other than Pahlavi leads Iran one year post-fall; (2) Pahlavi assumes power but loses it within that one-year window; or (3) Pahlavi assumes power after the one-year deadline has passed.

Resolves N/A if the Islamic Republic remains in power through 2030.

Background

Reza Pahlavi is an Iranian politician and dissident, and the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran. In 1980, following the death of his father in exile, Reza Pahlavi declared himself shah of Iran and actively participated in political activities opposing the Islamic Republic from abroad.

In 2024 a poll conducted by an American research institute found that almost 80% of Iranians prefer Pahlavi over the current Islamic Republic leadership. However, Pahlavi has said that he has no intention to take a long-term leadership role in Iran should the current regime fall. In June 2025, Pahlavi confirmed to bipartisan members of the U.S. House of Representatives that he "does not seek power", but rather "to fulfill a duty to help lead this transition".

A notable development in late 2025 was the ideological shift within protest slogans, with calls such as "Javid Shah" (Long Live the King) and "This Is the Final Battle / Pahlavi Will Return" echoing through cities where protests are concentrated.

Considerations

There is no centralized leadership to the current protest movement, and diaspora opposition leaders and groups are more polarized than ever. Research shows that from World War II to the present, less than a quarter of authoritarian transitions have led to democracy, and when authoritarian governments collapse as a result of internal violence or external conflict, the likelihood of a democratic transition is even lower. Additionally, Pahlavi's stance during the Iran–Israel war has drawn strong criticism from many other Iranian opposition figures, with some labeling him a "traitor".