State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027
4
Ṁ1kṀ786Dec 31
50%
Observing a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel
50%
The de-facto head of state is generally understood to be more friendly to US interests than Ali Khamenei
40%
At peace with US & Israel
31%
Actively transitioning (or already transitioned) to a non-Islamic Republic form of government
31%
It has formally agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons
29%
Occupied by (a coalition including) the US
20%
The de-facto head of state is neither endorsed nor selected by either the Guardian Council or Assembly of Experts
20%
There is no de-facto head of state
14%
Failed state / anarchy
10%
In an ongoing civil war
I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and use my own judgment in the event of ambiguity. I may resolve to % if I feel it's appropriate. I won't bet.
Specific rules:
The de-facto head of state is generally understood to be more friendly to US interests than Ali Khamenei
By this I mean "strictly more friendly", in the sense that a leader who is roughly "similar" resolves no.
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@draaglom Note I mean this in the sense of "strictly more" - a leader who is "about the same" resolves no.
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