Will attacks carried out by the IDF be directly linked to another hostage casualty before the end of the month? This is going live after the Reuters article (linked) suggesting the death of an Israeli soldier held hostage by Hamas due to an IDF air strike. I’ll do my best to ensure that this market resolves as fair as possible.
Market resolves YES if: At least one hostage held by Hamas is killed by the IDF before the end of November.
Market resolved NO if: No hostages held by Hamas are killed by the IDF before the end of November.
Nov. 9
UPDATE 12/1
Currently leaning towards a YES resolution due to the potential deaths of the Bibas family (hostages) due to an Israeli air strike. I have extended the close date in hopes that there will be more information in the coming days. I’ll post any updates here, and if you see something before me confirming or otherwise, please drop it in a comment. Thanks all!
UPDATE 12/5
There continues to be conflicting information regarding the current state of the Bibas family. Linked are several articles which all seem inconclusive. Stay tuned, may extend close.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-776395
UPDATE 12/16
Market extended. It might be a while before we have sufficient evidence to make a conclusion.
FINAL DECISION:
Based on the initial story posted in the description AND the following stories involving the Bibas family members killed both being Hamas claims, market resolved YES. Despite lack of sufficient evidence (in my opinion), this decision was made in the interest of being consistent.
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Edit - scratch that, unrelated to the market for January
@VAfc3f This Market was created for the month of November, not December. The reason it has not resolved is due to lack of evidence regarding cause of death for members of the Bibas family (which allegedly happened in November).
Unverified but Hamas claims a family was killed in airstrikes:
Fears Grow Over Fate of Bibas Family in Gaza https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/world/middleeast/bibas-family-israel-gaza.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
@Shump Do we know if it counts if the IDF / other sources don’t confirm or deny it before the end of the month? From the description it’s unclear to me whether the verification or just the death needs to happen before the end of the month.
@0x799 idk, the original story that is linked here wasn't verified either. IDF says it's looking into the truth of those claims, but I doubt they will be able to reach a conclusion. If it was me running this market, I would just keep it closed until we know the truth, but it's possible that the creator would resolve anyways or N/A.
@Shump Yeah—the story in the market description and the one you posted are both Hamas claims, so unless there’s more evidence/pushback on the story about the Bibas family, I’d anticipate a YES resolution.
@0x799 Right. I’m leaning towards resolving yes but I think I’ll wait a few more days to see if there are any confirming developments to the story.