Will Israel attempt to free any living hostages in Gaza through a military operation before the end of 2025?
7
100Ṁ191
2026
55%
chance

This market will resolve as YES if:

  • Israel conducts a military operation with the explicit purpose of freeing living hostages in Gaza before December 31, 2025

  • The operation is reported by major news outlets (such as AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, WSJ, New York Times, etc.) before the market closes

  • Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Shooting Incidents:

    • Intent Requirement: An operation must be explicitly directed at freeing hostages. Merely shooting the hostages outside of such an operation does not qualify.

    • Collateral Impact: If hostages are shot during an operation whose explicit purpose is to free them, that incident still meets the resolution criteria.

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