MANIFOLD
Trump visits China by May 15?
6
Ṁ1kṀ450
May 16
60%
chance

Resolves to YES if:

  • Donald Trump physically visits mainland China (e.g., Beijing or any city in China)

  • The visit occurs on or before May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM PT

  • The visit is confirmed by:

    • Official government statements, or

    • A consensus of credible reporting

Resolves to NO if:

  • Trump does not visit China within the specified timeframe

  • The trip is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or delayed beyond May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM PT


  • A planned or announced trip does NOT count — the visit must occur

  • A layover without an official visit does NOT count

  • Virtual meetings or summits outside China do NOT count


  • Market may resolve immediately upon confirmed arrival in mainland China

  • If arrival time is unclear, first widely reported timestamp of landing/arrival will be used.

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