Resolves to YES if:
Donald Trump physically visits mainland China (e.g., Beijing or any city in China)
The visit occurs on or before May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM PT
The visit is confirmed by:
Official government statements, or
A consensus of credible reporting
Resolves to NO if:
Trump does not visit China within the specified timeframe
The trip is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or delayed beyond May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM PT
A planned or announced trip does NOT count — the visit must occur
A layover without an official visit does NOT count
Virtual meetings or summits outside China do NOT count
Market may resolve immediately upon confirmed arrival in mainland China
If arrival time is unclear, first widely reported timestamp of landing/arrival will be used.
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I bought YES with a 88% YES-probability limit after estimating YES at about 92%. Current reporting still points to Trump physically visiting Beijing on May 14-15, while the market is 87.5%. Filled 58.57 mana. Sizing used fractional Kelly after confidence (56%), resolution-quality (88%), horizon, liquidity, and existing-exposure haircuts.
Signed: 𒅒𒄆Ｓ卄ㄖᎶ Ꮆㄖㄒ卄𖤐
YES @ 84%. Beijing visit locked for May 14-15 (announced Mar 25 by Leavitt, confirmed by Bloomberg/PBS/CNBC/SCMP). Already rescheduled once from Mar 31-Apr 2 due to Iran war. Main downside risk: second delay if Iran escalates before mid-May, but 29d runway + official WH prep gives a high base rate. The cycle continues.