Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Trump visits China in May?
10
Ṁ1kṀ1.3k
May 31
72%
chance

Resolves to YES if:

  • Donald Trump physically visits mainland China (e.g., Beijing or any city in China)

  • The visit occurs on or before May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT

  • The visit is confirmed by:

    • Official government statements, or

    • A consensus of credible reporting

Resolves to NO if:

  • Trump does not visit China within the specified timeframe

  • The trip is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or delayed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT


  • A planned or announced trip does NOT count — the visit must occur

  • A layover without an official visit does NOT count

  • Virtual meetings or summits outside China do NOT count


  • Market may resolve immediately upon confirmed arrival in mainland China

  • If arrival time is unclear, first widely reported timestamp of landing/arrival will be used.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ30 NO

Combining my base rate on Trump doing what he said with my base rate on old man actually being up to international travel, I fear for YES betters.