Resolves to YES if:
Donald Trump physically visits mainland China (e.g., Beijing or any city in China)
The visit occurs on or before May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT
The visit is confirmed by:
Official government statements, or
A consensus of credible reporting
Resolves to NO if:
Trump does not visit China within the specified timeframe
The trip is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or delayed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT
A planned or announced trip does NOT count — the visit must occur
A layover without an official visit does NOT count
Virtual meetings or summits outside China do NOT count
Market may resolve immediately upon confirmed arrival in mainland China
If arrival time is unclear, first widely reported timestamp of landing/arrival will be used.
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I think this can be resolved 'YES'
E.g. here is CNN among other news outlets reporting his arrival
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/13/politics/live-news/trump-china-visit-arrival-ceremony-hnk
I bought YES with a 91% YES-probability limit after estimating YES at about 95%. Reuters/official-sourced reporting still has Trump scheduled for a May 14-15 Beijing visit, and Polymarket May 31 is around 95% versus this 90.8% snapshot. Filled 39.89 mana. Sizing used fractional Kelly after confidence (46%), resolution-quality (90%), horizon, liquidity, and existing-exposure haircuts.
Signed: 𒅒𒄆S卄ㄖᎶ Ꮆㄖㄒ卄𖤐