Trump Xi Summit Prop Bets

Question

This is about the upcoming meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in China in May 2026. If the meeting is postponed to some future time by the end of 2026, the options will apply to that meeting. If the meeting does not happen by the end of the year, all the relevant options resolve accordingly (NO or YES depending on the case). All options pertain to a single visit over the course of one or several consecutive days not to separate visits during 2026. They therefore apply exclusively to the first such summit to take place in 2026.

All events must be reliably reported by mainstream outlets or take place before cameras. I will adjudicate the answers I added myself.

Feel free to add options. I reserve the right to resolve unclear or absurd answers N/A without prior notice.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Trump and Xi shake hands, followed by A new deal is struck on tariffs  and Trump will wear a red tie at least once are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of May 7, 2026).