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MANIFOLD
Trump Xi Summit Prop Bets
57
Ṁ1.7kṀ6.2k
May 15
70%
Trump mentions Iran
62%
Photo includes at least Xi, Trump, Cook, and Musk
41%
A new deal is struck on tariffs
34%
Trump says or implies the US cannot let China win the AI race
33%
Trump mentions Taiwan
31%
Trump mentions Biden
31%
Trump mentions Jensen Huang
22%
Trump mentions Obama or Obamacare
22%
Xi speaks English in front of cameras
21%
Trump makes major gaffe
16%
Trump says or implies the US cannot let China win the space race
16%
Trump mentions OpenAI
16%
Trump mentions COVID
15%
Trump accuses China of cyber warfare
15%
Trump mentions Anthropic
6%
Melania Trump is present on the trip
3%
Trump dies or disappears during the trip
Resolved
YES
Trump and Xi shake hands
Resolved
YES
Rubio is present on the trip
Resolved
YES
No summit takes place before EOY

This is about the upcoming meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in China in May 2026. If the meeting is postponed to some future time by the end of 2026, the options will apply to that meeting. If the meeting does not happen by the end of the year, all the relevant options resolve accordingly (NO or YES depending on the case). All options pertain to a single visit over the course of one or several consecutive days not to separate visits during 2026. They therefore apply exclusively to the first such summit to take place in 2026.

All events must be reliably reported by mainstream outlets or take place before cameras. I will adjudicate the answers I added myself.

Feel free to add options. I reserve the right to resolve unclear or absurd answers N/A without prior notice.

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