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MANIFOLD
Trump Xi Summit Prop Bets
4
Ṁ1kṀ210
May 31
85%
Trump and Xi shake hands
63%
Trump mentions COVID
62%
Trump will wear a red tie at least once
59%
A new deal is struck on tariffs
57%
Rubio is present on the trip
57%
Melania Trump is present on the trip
51%
Trump mentions Taiwan
50%
Trump makes major gaffe
50%
Trump says or implies the US cannot let China win the AI race
50%
Trump says or implies the US cannot let China win the space race
50%
Trump mentions OpenAI
38%
Xi will speak English in front of cameras
34%
Trump accuses China of cyber warfare
34%
Trump mentions Anthropic
28%
No summit takes place before EOY

This is about the upcoming meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in China in May 2026. If the meeting is postponed to some future time by the end of 2026, the options will apply to that meeting. If the meeting does not happen by the end of the year, all the relevant options resolve accordingly (NO or YES depending on the case). All options pertain to a single visit over the course of one or several consecutive days not to separate visits during 2026. They therefore apply exclusively to the first such summit to take place in 2026.

All events must be reliably reported by mainstream outlets or take place before cameras. I will adjudicate the answers I added myself. Feel free to add options. I reserve the right to resolve unclear or absurd answers N/A without prior notice.

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