Will Trump make a statement supporting mainland China over Taiwan during his term?
5
100Ṁ123
2029
21%
chance

Calling Taiwan a “renegade province” or “rebellious” or saying they are responsible for the ongoing conflict or any escalation thereof for any reason counts. Saying he wants to make a deal whereby Taiwan and China will be united into a Big Beautiful country would count as it is the pro-China stance on the conflict under any reasonable understanding. Merely threatening or promising not to defend Taiwan, e.g. because of their relatively low commitment to defense spending or lack of trade concessions would not count.

I will apply a “same breath” rule to retractions, anything contradicted in the same tweet or interview answer doesn’t count, but after that walkbacks and retractions don’t matter. For a speech any retraction in the same speech counts, but not after taking questions.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules