The market will resolve YES if I have to postpone my thesis for a semester. It will resolve NO otherwise. (I will probably cry either way)

I created this decision market, because it's obviously the only right thing to do in these sorts of situations... right?

I am doing a postgraduate degree in a field mixing both engineering and medicine. Next semester is supposed to be the dedicated to my thesis. However, if I fail a mandatory exam, I may be forced to postpone my thesis for an entire semester. Failing 6 or more credits from non-mandatory exams may also hinder my chances to work on my thesis next semester, but could be negotiated depending on the number of missing credits.

Clarifications:

• I expect all results by mid-February; I will extend the deadline if I don't get a definitive answer by then

• An exam is failed when below 60%

• If I am in a situation that may cause me to postpone my exam, I will try to negotiate it with the university. So the grades are not a definitive marker of market resolution

• I will not bet on this market

Grade updates:

• Exam 1 (2 credits, "mandatory"): not received

• Exam 2 (3 credits, "mandatory"): not received

• Exam 3 (3 credits, mandatory): passed! (80%)

• Exam 4 (3 credits): passed! (80%)

• Exam 5 (3 credits): passed! (80%)

• Exam 6 (3 credits): passed! (70%)

• Exam 7 (5 credits): passed! (90%)

• Exam 8 (5 credits): passed! (70%)

• Exam 9 (5 credits): failed! (50%)

Update:

• I reached to my university for some clarification, and I may be allowed to do my thesis even if I failed Exam 2, at the condition that I do not exceed more than 6 credits total.

• Exam 1 is apparently not really considered mandatory to do the thesis.