Shorting Noem: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/apr/26/trump-kristi-noem-shot-dog-and-goat-book

@Kolyin lol, that's quite a desperate attempt to be noticed

@hominidan I don’t think she wants to be his VP and is tanking on purpose.

seems like the reasons for putting down the dog are arguably valid and the guardian pearl clutching is irrelevant to her base. If she’s contemplating her own run later then this probably raises her chances. At this early stage any press even bad press helps her, as trump proved in 2016

@JonathanRay I agree but the explicit mention "I shouldn't be mentioning this" does make it seem plausible to me that she thinks she's playing 3D chess by trying to attract negative attention of the liberals around a story that could actually demonstrate something like will to do the necessary / empathetic toughness

@JonathanRay Completely agree that she's trying to be tactical, but I don't think this will impress many families in red states. Her later story about putting down horses is more that sort of thing, maybe, but I'm guessing most hunters and ranchers will look at this and think she just bungled the dog's training or handling. Pointing out that the kids apparently thought of it as a pet really makes her look bad to most people, too.

I think it affects her odds because if this gets any real legs, Trump will see it as undercutting the reasons he might pick her. He's already strong with the MAGA crowd. He likely wants a VP who can move the needle with swingier voters. Noem trying to prove how callous she can be by bragging about shooting the family pet doesn't really make her sound like a good fit for that role.

@Kolyin Trump in 2016 was a vulgar new york businessman who had been soft on abortion so in he picked pence partly to balance out his ticket with a christian social conservative, who is in most ways farther right than he is. But 2016 the primary was more competitive and in 2024 he doesn't need to balance out his ticket relative to the median republican so idk what his strategy, if any, would be. Perhaps a boring respectable lady VP would sway some swing voters.

the more of a nobody his pick is, the more that nobody owes him and can be expected to be loyal to him. Probably why he picked pence in 2016. Throw a dart at a list of republican governors.

Would you guys be surprised if I told you that Chris Christie was favoured for VP in 2016 before Trump ultimately heeded advisors' calls for Pence?

@MakiseKurisu Trump keeps saying it won't be Haley though

@Joshua He needs to focus on his immediate threat (winning the GOP primary), but once Haley endorses him and things settle down, she'll begin to look like a very real possibility for VP. Trump called DeSantis "DeSanctimonious" until he finally dropped out. There is a chance that she simply isn't selected, but of all of the existing options, Haley would be the strongest for Trump

Vivek is very unlikely imo, he's a techbro with no political experience under his belt. His skills are better used elsewhere, perhaps in Trump's cabinet, but he provides nothing electorally and politically.

@MakiseKurisu He is not a tech bro, he is a pharma bro. Important distinction.

You know why he’s not picking Scott? The black vote won’t win him an election. 13% of the population with a historically low turnout rate. Even if he doubled his support, pulling 20%+ of black people, it wouldn’t really move the needle. The demos to focus on are Hispanics and women.

Trump gave Tim Scott a shoutout when asked about his VP pick at the town hall

@ReidTurnbull Shout out to my African American friend, lol. He’s not picking Scott.

Marco Rubio would be perfect. Covers three demo weaknesses: Hispanic, young, establishment

@Joshua Do you scrape for large deviations from other sites?

@valeratrades I'm just very confident it's not Vivek.Trump treated him like an annoyance last night in his victory speech imo.

@Joshua Right, but how did you see the mispricing so quickly? Do you just manually constantly cycle through all the markets you have an edge on?

@valeratrades Well you left a comment which I saw when I checked my notifications

@Joshua Fun. Maybe I should just make a bot to sell to overconfident idiots like me on discrepancies from other sites, or even simpler - bets on fin markets with probability deviating from option prices... Is there any way to monetize these MANA things?

Megyn Kelly would be the perfect pick. Young, attractive, smart, and a way to show that even the biggest trump skeptics now favor him. It wouldn’t even be a big stretch: she’s been warm towards trump since the last election cycle. She’s maybe lacking in credentials, but credentials shouldn’t be the goal here. It’s about picking a relatable woman for suburban female voters. Trump is alien to them.

@FoxKHTML this is an approach I never considered when going for a job I'm under-qualified for. I'm taking notes.

@FoxKHTML She's 53; I don't know about young.

@xyz Well, she looks amazing. And 53 is young in politics.