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MANIFOLD
What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?
109
Ṁ2.1kṀ18k
Jun 2
91%
It will run over budget
15%
It will turn a profit
Resolved
YES
Athletes from the United States will win the most events
Resolved
YES
Watching the Games online will be officially free in the United States (with or without ads)
Resolved
YES
Participants from 10 or more countries will enter the Games
Resolved
YES
It won’t happen by the end of 2025
Resolved
YES
An olympic record will be broken.
Resolved
N/A
A non-enhanced athlete will win at least one event
Resolved
13%
It will be a culture war adjacent topic

https://enhanced.org/

Ever hear that old boomer saw about how "they should do an Olympics where all drugs are legal"? Well, a group of venture capitalists are going to actually do it.

Rules:
Do not add meta questions about this market itself.
All questions start from when they are added; no retroactive answers.
Questions can be edited for clarification by me.
Questions can be resolved N/A for quality control by me.
Anyone can present evidence for any answer, but if an answer is a mystery I will leave that question open until evidence arrives, or resolve it N/A a month after the Games end.
If the Games fall apart or have an indefinite delay, this market will be kept open until the end of Q3 2025, at which point all open questions will resolve N/A. If there is a small delay, I will simply move the resolution time.

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated the market will continue to track the Enhanced Games based on a new anticipated schedule, rather than resolving N/A in Q3 2025.

    • New Anticipated Date: May 2026

    • New Anticipated Location: Las Vegas, Nevada

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If anyone has a solid budgetary summary for the remaining two questions, post away!

IOC / Olympic Commitees are not allowing Enhanced Games Participants to be on the Olympic Teams, why was this resolved no?

@BrendanMooney Which question are you referring to and what evidence for a Yes? Link please.

at 3:00:25 in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSy5L2DqDDw, Bryan Johnson says that:

1. Athletes can't take more than a specific amount
2. They were given a menu to choose from which did not include all legal enhancing substances

This kinda sounds like "Some enhancing substance or surgery will be banned by the Games (not just by law)" should be YES?

@calour Limits on a specific amount would not qualify for Yes as it's not a "ban," and I watched the segment in question and they do not say the menu excluded some legal enhancing substances as you imply. If you have a more explicit piece of information about a ban on a substance that would not have been prevented by law I would be happy to unresolve.

@Panfilo no olympic world record was broken? nvm

@MattCWilson Hey, adding a question after it already happened and then betting it up is obviously dishonest and illegitimate. Don't do that. I'm blocking you.

@Panfilo does it even win anything? Doesn't the adder pay for the liquidity? Maybe trying to game the calibration?

@fwbt you get a higher "profit" stat (but not higher net worth)

@calour ah, so his -4169 profit is actually -4194, good to know

@fwbt Yeah it launders profit, pollutes the market, fakes calibration, and potentially screws over other bettors who misinterpret the question (maybe thinking it refers to a new instance of the question's subject, as most questions don't pertain to things that happened before they were created).

In my naivite, I did not predict how much of the games would be shilling the drugs.

Relevant context: his son is an investor

The project was founded by entrepreneurs Aron D'Souza and Maximilian Martin in 2023 and has attracted backing from prominent investors including billionaire Peter Thiel and Donald Trump Jr.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cedpz1zqp8po

opened a Ṁ25,000 NO at 19% order

bought Ṁ30 YES

@Bayesian put it back up

@Luxeed when is the race happening?

oh it's literally now

@Bayesian yeah lol

bought Ṁ10 NO

This is a live market.

@Panfilo resolves YES

I always thought the concept of enhanced games sounded cool, but I checked out their site and it just seems like a TRT sales grift lmao

sold Ṁ3 NO

With the date seeming to have firmly shifted to May 2026 and the location to Las Vegas, Nevada, are any folks interested in adding some new props?

This is iirc a claim that they have made, that someone on steroids has broken Usain Bolt's 100m WR

When is this happening?

@drcat The event was recently delayed from December 2024 to mid-2025. But it has more funding now (from Peter Thiel among others), and a bunch of details are supposed to drop in August of this year.