Will I drop out of Minerva University by 2027?
Basic
28
1.9k
2027
54%
chance

Here's who I am. My current expected graduation date is 05/01/2027.

Resolves "NO" if, as of 01/01/2027, I am still enrolled at Minerva University, graduated from Minerva University, transferred from Minerva University, or was kicked out of Minerva University.

Resolves "YES" if, prior to 01/01/2027, I drop out of Minerva University.

I am not allowed to bet on this market :(

Arsenii

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does this resolve NO if you transfer?

@saulmunn thanks Saul! Yes, it does :)

Resolves "YES" if I go to community college or any other institution that doesn't give me a bachelors degree though

@iatskar

Do you WANT to graduate from Minerva University? I mean, is it a genuine objective of yours?

@suzumebatchi graduation for the sake of graduation isn't my objective. I'll drop out if it maximizes my long-term expected income value

bought Ṁ50 NO

@iatskar

Thanks for the info. Best of luck to you. I expect you will achieve success, however you define it.

@suzumebatchi 🫶🏻

bought Ṁ10 NO

@iatskar Do you expect it to be very likely that you'll graduate?

@Bayesian If that were very likely, I wouldn't have created a prediction market :)

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