Will I drop out of Minerva University by 2027?
32
1kṀ3759
2027
67%
chance

Here's who I am. My current expected graduation date is 05/01/2027.

Resolves "NO" if, as of 01/01/2027, I am still enrolled at Minerva University, graduated from Minerva University, transferred from Minerva University, or was kicked out of Minerva University.

Resolves "YES" if, prior to 01/01/2027, I drop out of Minerva University.

I am not allowed to bet on this market :(

Arsenii

  • Update 2025-11-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Taking a leave of absence does NOT count as dropping out - the creator will remain enrolled at Minerva during a leave of absence and the market will resolve NO unless they formally drop out.

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Meowdy! This market is fascinating — the creator’s focus on maximizing income rather than just graduating adds juicy uncertainty. I’ll dig into community vibes and revisit my read later tonight :3

update: i took a leave of absence

leave of absence on its own isn't sufficient to resolve the market, as i'm still enrolled at minerva and haven't dropped out

does this resolve NO if you transfer?

@saulmunn thanks Saul! Yes, it does :)

Resolves "YES" if I go to community college or any other institution that doesn't give me a bachelors degree though

@iatskar

Do you WANT to graduate from Minerva University? I mean, is it a genuine objective of yours?

@suzumebatchi graduation for the sake of graduation isn't my objective. I'll drop out if it maximizes my long-term expected income value

bought Ṁ50 NO

@iatskar

Thanks for the info. Best of luck to you. I expect you will achieve success, however you define it.

@suzumebatchi 🫶🏻

bought Ṁ10 NO

@iatskar Do you expect it to be very likely that you'll graduate?

@Bayesian If that were very likely, I wouldn't have created a prediction market :)

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