Will I drop out of college?
Sep 1

This question resolved to YES if on August 31, 2024 I haven't been enrolled in college for the previous two years (at which point Tufts won't let me back) or if before then I officially drop out (rather than stalling by "taking semesters off" which is what's currently happening).

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When were you last in college?

Base rates: apparently 33% of college students drop out! That's a lot higher than I expected: https://educationdata.org/college-dropout-rates

Though from a forecasting perspective I think that should be adjusted downwards, as 4-year university students seem half as likely to drop out; and dropouts are disporoptionately freshman (Rachel's a junior)

predicts NO

@Austin But better reference classes for me would be either my college where it’s <10% or EA undergrads who take a semester off for which the drop out rate might be even higher than your base rate idk

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