Resolution criteria

This is a dependent multiple-choice market. Exactly one option will resolve YES; all others resolve NO.

• Source of truth: Official certified election results published by the Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.

• Calculation: The margin of victory is James Talarico’s official vote percentage minus the second-place candidate’s official vote percentage, in percentage points, using the figures as published in the certified results.

• Bucketing rules: The option whose range contains the margin resolves YES.

  • “Talarico wins by 5% or more” resolves YES if the margin is 5.00 percentage points or more.

  • “Talarico wins by 4–5%” resolves YES if the margin is at least 4.00 but less than 5.00 percentage points.

  • “Talarico wins by 3–4%” resolves YES if the margin is at least 3.00 but less than 4.00 percentage points.

  • “Talarico wins by 2–3%” resolves YES if the margin is at least 2.00 but less than 3.00 percentage points.

  • “Talarico wins by 1–2%” resolves YES if the margin is at least 1.00 but less than 2.00 percentage points.

  • “Talarico wins by less than 1%” resolves YES if the margin is greater than 0.00 but less than 1.00 percentage points.

  • “Talarico does not win” resolves YES if James Talarico loses or the election is tied.

• Boundaries: A margin landing exactly on a threshold belongs to the higher bucket. For example, a margin of exactly 3.00 points resolves “Talarico wins by 3–4%” YES.

Background

Democrat James Talarico is running against Republican nominee Ken Paxton in the November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate election in Texas. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988.