Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Abdul El-Sayed wins the November 3, 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election by a larger margin of victory (measured in percentage points of the total vote) than James Talarico wins the November 3, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election.

It will also resolve to YES if Abdul el Sayed loses by a smaller margin than Talarico does if both lose.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO, including if:

• James Talarico wins by a larger percentage-point margin than Abdul El-Sayed.

• Both candidates win by the exact same percentage-point margin.

Specific terms and data sources:

• Margin of victory is calculated as the candidate's share of the total votes cast minus the share received by the second-place candidate (in percentage points).

• Resolution will be based on the official certified general election results published by the Michigan Department of State and the Texas Secretary of State, or associated press.