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MANIFOLD
Which demographics will James Talarico win?
3
Ṁ5kṀ185
Nov 4
80%
Voters that were not born in Texas?
72%
White Independents?
71%
Voters that *somewhat* disapprove of Trump as President
65%
Age 30-44 voters
65%
Latino Independents?
64%
Asian voters?
59%
Latino men?
52%
White voters with a college degree?
45%
Voters that decided on their vote in October?
45%
Latino, No College Degree voters?
41%
Latino, Born in Texas?
40%
No college degree voters
20%
Age 45-64 voters
15%
Voters that were born in Texas?
14%
White women?
9%
Suburban voters?
8%
65 and older?

Resolves according to the CNN Exit Poll conducted for the 2026 Texas Senate election.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas - Wikipedia

Previous election exit polls from Texas if you’d like to get some background info:

Exit poll results 2024 | CNN Politics

Texas 2022 Exit Poll

Texas 2020 President exit polls.

2018 midterms: EXIT POLLING | CNN

Rules:

If the result is tied, resolves no. Talarico must win the demographic.

If there is no CNN exit poll, resolves to the Edison exit poll. If there is no Edison exit poll, resolves according to NBC exit polls. N/a if none of those have an exit poll.

If an individual demographic size is too small and the exit poll decides to show it as n/a or similar, that specific answer will resolve to N/a.

If a specific answer answer is not asked, or not shown, then that answer will resolve N/a.

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