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MANIFOLD
Which demographics will James Talarico win?
36
Ṁ6kṀ6k
Nov 4
90%
Voters that *somewhat* disapprove of Trump as President
88%
Latino Independents?
88%
Age 30-44 voters
87%
Voters that were not born in Texas?
85%
Asian voters?
79%
White Independents?
72%
White voters with a college degree?
66%
Latino men?
59%
Latino, No College Degree voters?
55%
Latino, Born in Texas?
52%
Voters that decided on their vote in October?
35%
Age 45-64 voters
23%
White women?
15%
No college degree voters
15%
Voters that were born in Texas?
11%
Suburban voters?
4%
65 and older?

Resolves according to the CNN Exit Poll (The 2026 Voter Poll by SSRS™) conducted for the 2026 Texas Senate election.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas - Wikipedia

Previous election exit polls from Texas if you’d like to get some background info:

Exit poll results 2024 | CNN Politics

Texas 2022 Exit Poll

Texas 2020 President exit polls.

2018 midterms: EXIT POLLING | CNN

Rules:

If the result is tied, resolves no. Talarico must win the demographic.

resolves to The 2026 Voter Poll by SSRS™ N/a if none of those have an exit poll.

If an individual demographic size is too small and the exit poll decides to show it as n/a or similar, that specific answer will resolve to N/a.

If a specific answer answer is not asked, or not shown, then that answer will resolve N/a.

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Update to show the poll is now called The 2026 Voter Poll by SSRS™

https://ssrs.com/ssrs-solutions/voter-poll/

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