This market resolves to the candidate with the biggest margin in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election in their state.
Margin = the candidate's vote share minus the runner-up's vote share, in percentage points. If the candidate loses, it's their vote share minus the winner's share, so the margin counts as a minus number (e.g. losing 47% to 51% is -4).
The highest margin wins. If some or all of the three lose, the one who lost by the least still wins this market (-2 beats -5).
Vote shares use total votes cast in that race, including third-party and write-in votes.
Source: reporting from major outlets such as the Associated Press. If it’s too close to call, certified results from each state's official election authority. If certification isn't done by December 31, 2026, I'll use the latest official or AP-reported totals at that date.
Ties: if two candidates tie at two decimal places, I'll compare raw vote margins as a percentage of total votes. If still tied, the market resolves 50/50 between them.
Recounts/litigation: I'll use the certified post-recount result. If it's still contested at the deadline, I'll wait up to 60 days, then use the latest official count.