Will the Republican Party win a majority of the five gerrymandered districts in Texas during the 2026 Midterms?

Question

This market focuses specifically on whether the Republican Party will win the 2026 Midterm Elections for the following Texas Districts that were gerrymandered as part of the 2025 effort to redraw the state-wide District Map:

TX-9

TX-28

TX-32

TX-34

TX-35

I will resolve this to 'Yes' if Republicans win at least three of the five districts, and 'No' if not.

I will also resolve this to N/A in the event of any credible proof of election tampering or if the election was not held for any reason.

I do not bet on markets I create.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 49% chance (4 traders, as of Oct 3, 2026).

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