Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party secures a majority of seats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections, according to certified results or calls from major news organizations (such as The Associated Press).

This market resolves to NO if:

• The Democratic Party (or an independent caucusing with Democrats) secures a majority in either the House, the Senate, or both chambers.

• Control of either chamber remains split/tied with Democratic control via the Vice President's tie-breaking vote.

Note for market creator: Because "winning the midterms" is colloquial, if the intended criterion was controlling a specific chamber (e.g., only the House or only the Senate) rather than both, please update the description explicitly before significant trading occurs.

Background

The next U.S. midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Midterm elections historically serve as a referendum on the sitting president's administration, with the incumbent president's party typically losing congressional seats. All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and 33 or 34 Class 2 seats in the Senate (plus any special elections) will be contested.

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