The pollster must be rated at-least 2.5 stars on 538's pollster ratings
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
The poll most provide enough information to be able to calculate what the average approval rating were be if Democrats polled were to be excluded from the average.
and obviously I have to be made aware of it (and be able to access the full detailed results needed for above calculation). I might miss a just a one off poll where this barely happens so please comment it here if you want a guarantee that I am aware of it.
Example: In this Gallup poll he came pretty close
https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/328649/210118TrumpFinal.pdf
which gives a 46.8% average disapproval among all R and I's. Close but no cigar. There are probably some that are closer, or perhaps even some that already do pass that threshold however I am only counting polls post the the creation of this question.
Will Trump ever be disapproved of by a majority of non-Democrats before his death (if it hasn't already happened)?
14
Ṁ100Ṁ5172050
50%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
How unpopular will Donald Trump get?
Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
5% chance
Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?
23% chance
Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% or lower before Dec 1st 2026
95% chance
How Low Will Donald Trumps Approval get in 2026?
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 60% before his death?
36% chance
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 70% before his death?
55% chance
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?
24% chance
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?
23% chance
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
19% chance