The pollster must be rated at-least 2.5 stars on 538's pollster ratings
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
The poll most provide enough information to be able to calculate what the average approval rating were be if Democrats polled were to be excluded from the average.
and obviously I have to be made aware of it (and be able to access the full detailed results needed for above calculation). I might miss a just a one off poll where this barely happens so please comment it here if you want a guarantee that I am aware of it.
Example: In this Gallup poll he came pretty close
https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/328649/210118TrumpFinal.pdf
which gives a 46.8% average disapproval among all R and I's. Close but no cigar. There are probably some that are closer, or perhaps even some that already do pass that threshold however I am only counting polls post the the creation of this question.
Will Trump ever be disapproved of by a majority of non-Democrats before his death (if it hasn't already happened)?
14
Ṁ100Ṁ5172050
50%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Will Donald Trump get impeached again in his lifetime?
67% chance
Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?
33% chance
How unpopular will Donald Trump get?
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?
24% chance
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 60% before his death?
36% chance
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 70% before his death?
48% chance
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
16% chance
Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?
9% chance
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 30% before his death?
13% chance
Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
11% chance